NFL Week 13 Picks

Arizona at Philadelphia  (-3.0)

After Bruce Arian's Cardinals pulled off a shock 40-11 win over the Colts last week suddenly you look at the 7-4 Cards and think maybe they can do some damage. If they weren't unfortunate to be in the same division as the Seahawks and the 49ers then they wouldn't still give the impression they're probably going to be on the outside looking in come January. But, anything is possible and San Fran don't look as good as their own 7-4 record suggests.

The Eagles are 3 point favorites and on a three game winning streak but taking a look through their schedule suggests they're just taking advantage of bad defenses. Their last three wins came against Oakland, Washington and Green Bay who have the 21st, 23rd and 31st ranked defense in terms of points allowed. Arizona's defense is ranked 8th and coming off that Indy win will give the Cards a lot of 'no-one believed in us look what we can do' sort of confidence.

Result Prediction: Arizona to Win

Spread: Arizona to beat

Chicago at Minnesota(-1.0)

The Bears 32nd ranked run defense(the worst in the country, by the way) rolls into Minnesota to face the reigning MVP and best RB in the NFL, Adrian Peterson. Don't be at all surprised if AP rips off a 70 yard touchdown run on the first play. AP also gets more yards against the Bears than any other team in his career, and that was before Chicago had a run defense that would probably be embarrassed in College Football.
The Bears are the better side and McCown is doing a sterling job in Jay Cutler's stead but if that defense is giving up 5 yards a carry against terrible rushing attacks(Ray Rice having the best day of his season despite averaging under three yards a carry for the season) then I just don't feel good backing them at all. Take the Vikes here, and maybe consider a prop bet on AP to get 200 yards as well.

Result Prediction: Minnesota

Spread: Minnesota to cover

Jacksonville at Cleveland(-7.0)

When was the last time the Browns were 7 point favorites over anyone? Or anything? If the Browns were playing my high school team(who don't have an NFL team as I'm English and that's not what we do here, so they'd be playing my school rugby team who had to learn how to play the American Football in a short space of time) I'd still be like 'yeah the Browns are favorites, but 10 points feels a little steep. I really like that defense against Weeden/Campbell/Whoever'. That's kinda how I'd feel today if they weren't facing the Jags, a team so committed to being bad that Jacksonville's GM could give seminars on self abuse and suffering to haughty teenagers. 'It's like an art form man, it's being so bad for something that could be so good.' Well, after all this I hope it's worth it! I would expect the Browns to win but I don't think it's going to be by more than seven. I also don't think there's going to be anything good to watch in this game at all.

Result Prediction: Cleveland

Spread: Jacksonville to beat

Miami at NY Jets(-1.5)

This is a tough one between two sides that can't decide whether to be good or mediocre, and keep flitting between the two. They're both similar sides: blitzing defense, question marks hanging over a young quarterback and they both need this to have a shot at a playoff berth in the AFC. The Jets are favorites at home but I'd take Miami here against a side that has struggled to beat the offensively stunted Ravens and the Bills(self explanatory) in the last two weeks. Tannehill > Geno.

Result Prediction: Miami

Spread: Miami to beat

New England (-7.5) at Houston

The Texans are done. They're sinking, Schaub is getting booed, there's no real QB answer and so many NFL analysts are picking the Texans to take Johnny Manziel ridiculously early in the draft it's not even funny. Remember when we said this team would be competitive? What happened to that? Meanwhile, Tom Brady's Patriots will keep rolling on their way to another divisional title. The Texans will just be another(particularly ugly) speed bump.

Result: New England

Spread: New England to cover

Denver(-5.0) at Kansas

The battle of the invincibles has turned to a battle of two sides that have now suddenly lost their Superbowl sheen. Can Peyto get the Broncos to the promised land if Brady is waiting for him? If Phillip Rivers can do that to the Chiefs defense then who else can? Both teams will be looking to restore some pride after reputation damaging losses and I don't think Denver are going to win by more than 6, away from home against what is still as suffocating a defense Manning will play all year. This'll be a close one.

Result: Denver

Spread: KC to beat

Tampa at Carolina(-8.0)

The Bucs are on a three game winning streak?! How the hell did that happen? After looking like they would lose every game, their coach and the guarantee that anyone who said "I quite like the Bucs" this summer definitely won't be saying it ever again. But has that 3 game streak given at least a little bit of justification? If Josh Freeman wasn't a tire fire with arms then could this team have been a read threat? Maybe. But after beating the Lions in the most Lions-like game of all time(Detroit blowing it in a way that only they can), beating Atlanta (who are now even more committed to being terrible), the only real credible win is the OT victory over Miami. Carolina look great, and Mike Glennon is not going to have a fun day with the Panthers defensive line.

Result: Carolina

Spread: Carolina to cover

Cincinnati at San Diego(-1.5)

The Chargers are so difficult to predict. They look good in one week, they win the next. They look terrible, then they win in a big game where Rivers looks like an MVP candidate. It's similar with the Bengals. Cincy have a golden opportunity to win a division that no-one seems to want to win and be a top seed in a conference that has teams with losing records that still have a chance to be relevant. Like the Chargers, funnily enough. A win here, 8-4 will almost definitely put Cincy in the drivers seat but after losing twice in OT to the Dolphins and the Ravens can you be sure about it? I like what Vegas have done here. I'd take San Diego too.

Result: San Diego

Spread: San Diego to cover

Atlanta at Buffalo (-3.0) 

The Falcons, away from home, who have given up on the season(lets take a moment for Tony Gonzalez's career) and gunning for Jadeveon Clowney in the draft against a Buffalo side who just don't know when to quit. That 23 point win over the Jets makes me thing this team maybe could break even before the end of the season. The Bills over .500 for the season? Who knew? Their next two games after this Atlanta clash are Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. 3-0? I wouldn't be surprised.

Result: Buffalo

Spread: Buffalo to cover

Tennessee at Indianapolis (-4.0) 

Time to find out whether Colts owner Jim Irsay's Twitter rant after his teams loss to the Cards will have any effect in motivating the team to beat the Titans. Irsay once again raises questions about owners involvement in the game, let the football people do the work blah blah but bottom line, the guy pays the bills. What happened vs the Cardinals? How did you lose that badly against the Rams? They're all pertinent questions but the Colts will still win their division because they're the only team in it with a quarterback whose name doesn't follow with an immediate query. I expect that to ring true in the tie against the Titans.

Result: Indy

Spread: Indy

NY Giants(-1.0) at Washington

The Redskins fall from critical darling's of the 2012 to 3-8 in the 2013 season and behind a Giants team who started 0-6 has been quite astonishing. The loss against the Cowboys takes the Giants out of the playoff race but that Redskins defense isn't stopping a nosebleed this season, ranked 31st in points conceded, 29th in points differential and with RG3 completing under 60% of his passes with a TD-INT ratio of 14-11 it's hard to see Washington rescuing some pride here.

Result: NY

Spread: NY to cover

New Orleans at Seattle(-5.5)

The battle between the two most exciting teams in the NFC is set to get underway as we see Brees vs Wilson, Graham vs Seattle's suspended secondary and Percy Harvin against Rob Ryan's NO defense. Most football games come down to personal battles but I can see this being a shoot out that home advantage rescues it for Seattle. I think the Hawks will do it, but not by much.

Result: Seattle

Spread: New Orleans to beat

Odds courtesy of SkyBet.com

Zdenek Zeman to AC Milan: Why the hell not?

Things are pretty dark at Via Turati. The once great AC Milan sit 10th on 13 points from 12 games, 15 away from Napoli sitting in the last Champions League spot Serie A can offer yet just four points from the relegation zone. AC Milan!

Milan haven't won in Serie A for over a month, the last coming in a dreadful 1-0 win over Udinese and Massimiliano Allegri's side have scored more than one goal in a game only once in the last five, a 3-2 loss to Parma. They've only scored more than once and won against Celtic in the Champions League. They haven't done it at all in Serie A. At all. AC Milan haven't beaten a Serie A rival by more than one goal all season. 

None of this is startling if you watch them play. Milan, formerly so classy and clinical in possession are now sloppy, sluggish and unimaginative. There is no pace, no intensity, no pressure (as well as the inability to deal with pressure from any other team) and it's a sporting train wreck defensively.

While writing a piece for Forza Italian Football I found out that while Milan lead the league in possession(Allegri's side average 59.5% a game) they sit joint 7th in goals scored. So what are they doing with the ball? There is literally swathes of possession being wasted as the likes of Kevin Constant, Sulley Muntari and Alessandro Matri struggle to make concise passes. When he plays, Balotelli is often isolated and unaided up front while Valter Birsa tends to spend at least 20-30 minutes every game completely uninvolved. Only Andrea Poli and returning star Riccardo Kaka' seem willing(or able) to play cohesive, attractive football this season while the rest of Milan's team play like guys who have already written the season off.

Which is why hiring Zdenek Zeman until the end of the season makes a lot of sense. (Or not, whatever, just hear me out.)

The former Foggia, Pescara and two-time Roma boss is famed throughout Italian football for a few things: his chain smoking, his conspiracy theories (notably about Juventus) and his attack first, don't do anything else second brand of football.

Zeman has employed a 4-3-3 his entire coaching career and he relies on fitness, intensity and hard running for 90 minutes as he aims to overpower teams with pace and sheer persistence. His teams score a lot of goals, concede a lot of goals and play a 'blink and you've missed it' sort of style.


Milan have a lot of attacking talent that is currently not being used to it's full potential that could be harnessed by Zeman; Balotelli, Stephan El Shaarawy, Kaka', M'baye Niang, Riccardo Saponara and the January arrival of Keisuke Honda is more than enough for the Czech tactician to work his magic. With the players I've just listed, you can guarantee Zeman's rossoneri wouldn't sit 7th in scoring with that amount of possession.

In midfield, Riccardo Montolivo, Nigel De Jong, Andrea Poli and the possibility of playing Kaka in a deep role once again gives Zeman enough creativity to work with and his unflappable attitude toward playing youth would benefit the likes of Bryan Cristante and Riccardo Saponara - both of whom have not seen a lot of minutes under Allegri so far this season. Additionally, imagine what he could do with El Shaarawy, Balotelli and Honda/Kaka? He turned Francesco Totti into a star playing as left winger in his first stint at Roma in the 1990's and El Shaarawy is also gifted with the work ethic and pace that Zeman loves in attackers. On paper, they're perfect for each other.

AC Milan are not strong defensively at all, but the firepower up front could genuinely be used by Zeman to create a side that will cause more problems to sides than the currently anemic offense under Allegri has been.

Before you call me a nutcase - hear me out. This isn't the answer. Long term, absolutely not. Zeman's stint at Roma two seasons ago proved that as far as managing a team hoping to compete for a title goes, he's not your guy. But Milan don't need him to be that guy.


It appears all signs in Milan are pointing toward a 2014 blow up and rebuild, with Allegri walking to be replaced by any one of Cesare Prandelli, Roberto Donadoni or a guy coming from Milan's history books(a favorite method of Silvio Berlusconi). There will probably be a new vice president and COO if Silvio's daughter Barbara gets her way along with a summer spent trying to get a lot of Adriano Galliani's, ah, less successful signings off the Milan books. So if Milan are just killing time until 2014, then why not go out in style? Bring in Zeman and his footballing insanity to bring a little bit of adrenalin until May, let him go back to whatever he's been doing in his time off at the end of the year and rebuild like you're planning on doing anyway.

The thing is, after last season's heroic comeback to force Milan into a Champions League spot last season, there is probably still hope that a productive January, a few players coming back from injury and a decent run of results could re-propel Milan back into prominence. Unfortunately, that's very rapidly approaching impossible, especially when you consider that every side bar Milan have got noticeably stronger over the summer. It's not that easy this time.

So once the inevitability of not appearing in the top three come May dawns on the remaining optimists in the rossoneri camp (and believe me, it's coming), then the whole season will just feel even worse. If there's no hope, why does it still have to be dull? Can't we just have a little fun? If we're going to be pressing the reset button in June, why not just go down swinging? I bet Zeman has some really good stories about Juventus he'd love to tell.

Zdnek Zeman to Milan. Why not?

Adriano Galliani, this is your life: AC Milan's notable transfer activity since 2010/11

If you've been re-directed here from the forzaitalianfootball.com website, thanks for clicking. Here is the entire list of notable transfers AC Milan have made since the start of the 2010/11 season with a bracketed section detailing how their career has panned out since.

2010/11:

Mario Yepes: Centre-back, free (38 appearances and one goal, left club for Atalanta after contract expired).

Marco Amelia: Goalkeeper, 12 month loan (bought next summer for €3.5m, 24 appearances, still at Milan).

Sokratis Papastathopoulos: Centre back, €4.5m plus 50% of the rights of Gianmarco Zigoni (valued at €3.75m) Nnamdi Oduamadi (valued at €3.5m) and Rodney Strasser (€2.5m). Five appearances, no goals (A year later Milan sold Sokratis back to Genoa for €13m but bought out all the contracts of the co-owned players, meaning a 12 month loan cost them €1m. He was loaned 12 months to Werder Bremen who bought him in 2012 for €5m. They then sold him to Borussia Dortmund a year later for €9.5m. He has made 66 appearances in German football since leaving Milan. *inhales deeply*)

Kevin Prince Boateng: Midfielder, loan with the option to buy for around €7m (100 appearances, 17 goals, sold to Schalke 04 for €15m).

Robinho: Forward, €18m (130 appearances, 30 goals, couldn't be sold to hometown club Santos who didn't think he was worth €10m)

Zlatan Ibrahimovic: Striker, loan with option to buy for around €24m (85 appearances, 56 goals, sold to PSG for €20m)

Antonio Cassano: Forward, €3.3m (40 appearances, eight goals, 16 assists, used with €7m to buy 

Giampaolo Pazzini from Inter, joined Parma 12 months later)

Urby Emmanuelson: Midfielder, €2.5m (57 appearances, three goals, loaned to Fulham for half of 2012-13 season, still at Milan.)

Mark Van Bommel: Midfielder, free (50 appearances, no goals, extended six month deal by one year before leaving for free to PSV in 2012)

Didac Vila: Left-back, undisclosed fee (one appearance, no goals. Loaned out to Espanyol and Real Betis in the last two seasons.)

Nicola Legrottaglie: Centre back, free (One appearance, no goals. Moved to Catania at the end of the same season, played 66 games and scored eight goals.)

Note: Cassano was the replacement for the outgoing Ronaldhinho, who was then replaced with Giampaolo Pazzini, who's replacement while injured has been Alessandro Matri. So Ronaldinho > Cassano > Pazzini > Matri. Cool. 

2011/12: 

Philipe Mexes: Centre back, free (65 appearances, three goals)

Taye Taiwo: Left back, free (eight appearances, no goals, loaned to QPR, Dynamo Kyiv and now plays for Bursaspor)

Stephan El Shaarawy: Forward, loan/co-ownership deal (entire contract bought out for around €20m in the next year, €10m paid for each half of the contract, still at Milan)

Antonio Nocerino: Midfielder, €500,000 (77 appearances, 13 goals, still at Milan)

Alberto Aquilani: Midfielder, loan with option to buy (23 appearances, one goal. Rerturned to Liverpool after one season to be eventually bought by Fiorentina)

Sulley Muntari: Midfielder, loan with option to buy (Signed for free after his contract expired that season, 47 appearances, nine goals)

Djamel Mesbah: Left back, undisclosed fee (14 appearances, one goal, used to swap with Parma for Christian Zaccardo)

Note: This was the summer/January that followed letting Andrea Pirlo walk to Juventus for free because they had Van Bommel in front of the defense. Van Bommel is now retired, Andrea Pirlo is, well, Andrea Pirlo. 

2012/13: 

Bakaye Traore: Midfielder, Free (nine appearances, no goals, loaned to Kayseri Erciyesspor).

Riccardo Montolivo: Midfielder, free (46 appearances, four goals. Still at Milan, now captain).

Gabriel: Goalkeeper, €500,000 (four appearances, no goals, still at Milan).

Francesco Acerbi: Centre back, €4m for 50% co-ownership (six appearances, no goals, 50% given to Genoa for remaining 50% of Kevin Constant at the end of the 2012/13 season).

Giampaolo Pazzini: Striker, €7m plus Antonio Cassano (37 games, 16 goals, still at Milan).

Christian Zapata: Centre back. loan with option to buy (bought out the following year for €5m, 35 appearances, no goals. Still at Milan).

M'baye Niang: Forward, undisclosed fee: (32 games, one goal. Still at Milan). 

Nigel De Jong: Midfielder, €5m: (26 appearances, one goal, still at Milan). 

Riccardo Saponara: 50% co-ownership bought for €4m. (Two appearances, no goals. Still at Milan.)

Christian Zaccardo: Straight swap with Djamel Mesbah (five appearances, no goals, still at Milan).

Mario Balotelli: €21.5m (27 appearances, 16 goals). 

Note: This was the seasonal transfer activity that followed the exits/sales of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Thiago Silva, Gianluca Zambrotta, Alessandro Nesta, Clarence Seedorf, Pippo Inzaghi and Gennaro Gattuso. Alexandre Pato also left in January. Puts it into context, doesn't it?

2013/14: 

Jherson Vergara: Centre back, €2m (no official appearances for Milan yet)

Andrea Poli: Midfielder, €3m for 50% of contract (eight appearances, two goals)

Matias Silvestre: Centre back, €1m loan with option to buy for €4m (two appearances, one goal)

Valter Birsa: Midfielder, swapped for Luca Antonini (seven appearances, two goals)

Kaka: Midfielder, free (six appearances, one goal)

Alessandro Matri: €12m. (Eight appearances, one goal). 

Note: The arrivals of Adil Rami from Valencia and Keisuke Honda from CSKA Moscow are expected in January. 

NFL Week 9 Picks

Hey sports fans!
(Kind of always wanted to write that line, given I'd be much too embarrassed to say it)
I had an idea for a blog that keep me typing away regularly on here without having to think of topic I don't already cover for other sites, and it got me thinking about a betting column. Because what do people love more than sports? Making money from sports!

So I figured that I'd try my hand giving a few betting tips based on the sleep-depriving volume of sports I watch before the weekend, to give my 4am binges staring at NFL Gamepass, Twitter, Grantland, WhoScored some sort of depth and nobility(Because nothing quite says honor like groggily remonstrating at a laptop covered in Doritos and shame).

Anyway, I decided that eight weeks into a season before deciding to give my evenings purpose would be a good thing to do. Hope you like the column, and I hope my picks make you some money.

Odds courtesy of SkyBet.com

NFL Week 9: 

Atlanta Falcons (+7.5) at Carolina Panthers (-7.5). 

The 2-5 Falcons travel to the surprisingly 4-3 Panthers it what last year would've been an easy win for Atlanta and their high powered offense. How a year changes things, right? Key injuries to Julio Jones and Roddy White have rendered this offense pretty stale. Without Matt Ryan's two favorite wide receivers and the fact that shipped 14 points to THE ARIZONA CARDINALS last week(24th rated offense in the NFL) then I would say Cam Newton is probably going to enjoy himself. I would take the Panthers to cover the spread here.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Buffalo Bills

Jamaal Charles's is 'probable' for the game and that's probably a large part of the figures here, but how are the 8-0 Chiefs less than 5 point favorites over the 3-5 Bills? Even without their RB(who isn't ruled out, and will likely play) expect the KC pass rush to score enough on it's own to take this one. Just can't see the 18th ranked Bills offense being enough of an issue. Additionally, that defense may actually not even play Thad Lewis, who is listed as 'doubtful'. A 3rd or 4th choice QB vs the #1 D in America? Take the Chiefs and run before Vegas changes it.

New Orleans Saints (-6.0) at New York Jets

Despite actually looking close to average rather than the awful many predicted during the summer and beating the Patriots(which might say more about the injury ravaged Patriots than anything else) AND being in New York, I can't see Geno Smith beating this New Orleans defense. He'll throw a pick along the way, Drew Brees probably won't. The Saints also have the 4th best defense in the NFL, a better ranking than the Brees-Graham love in on offense. I'd pick the Saints to beat the spread in New York.

Tennessee Titans(-3.0) at St Louis Rams

Despite losing the last three, the Titans lost those games against the 49ers, Seahawks and the Chiefs. Nothing wrong with that, and now they travel to a St Louis team that seem to be stopping itself win football games right at the last second. The Titans defense is top 10, and there's no way I like Sam Bradford in any circumstance. Take the Titans here.

San Diego (-1.0) at the Washington Redskins

It's so close between these two, I'm essentially just picking a winner. Even if RG3's knee is feeling better week-by-week(and the Skins offense looked fluid making the Broncos do some late-game heroics to come out the victor last week) I don't like the defense against a Phillip Rivers who has remembered how to throw a ball. And the Charger's defense won't be as porous. San Diego gets my vote.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers(+14.5) at Seattle Seahawks

If this was in Tampa, I'd be really tempted to take the Bucs here. After Seattle squeaked past the very bad St Louis Rams I wasn't entirely sure I can really buy into that offense until I see Percy Harvin in it. But they're at home, and Seattle are notoriously ridiculous at home. Feels like one of those games that the 12th man gets a few TD's for the 'Hawks. Also think that maybe the 0-7 Bucs will be hoping that a blowout will see off unpopular coach Greg Schiano. Take the Hawks.

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns

I'm taking the Browns here, because I think the stingy Cleveland D will hold the profligate Ravens offense to a quiet game. Very quiet. The Ravens have the 21st best offense in the country and will travel to the Browns who have are unlucky to be 3-5, while the Ravens have been fortunate to have lost as many close ones as they have. I'd pick the Browns, despite how dirty I feel typing that.

Pittsburgh Steelers(+6.0) at New England Patriots

The Patriots have only won by more than a touch down twice in six wins, and that was against the irrecoverably bad Buccaneers in Week 3 and the Dolphins last week, who have the 19th ranked defense in the NFL. Just think they'll probably win because they're at home, but it'll be one of those dragging, 30% 3rd down conversion sort of games. The Steelers lost by three in the last two weeks, I expect something similar against Brady's 17th(!!!) ranked offense. I'd take the Steelers.

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Houston Texans

I don't know how the Colts(5-2), who beat Peyton Manning's Broncos are under 3 point favorites to beat the Houston Texans(2-5), who have the 3rd worst offense, the 6th worst defense and the second-worst points differential in the entire league. Not to mention the revolving door/pick-six-waiting-to-happen under center. Take Indy.

Bears (+10.5) at Green Bay Packers

The Bears have no Lance Briggs, Jay Cutler and D.J Williams. Charles Tillman is doubtful. That's two of your three starting linebackers, your quarterback and a cornerback. The Bears had the 4th worst defense WITH those guys in, and travel to Lambeu Field and Aaron Rodgers. Despite the 2nd best offense in the NFL for points, losing their passer to a groin injury will probably have a bigger impact than coach Marc Trestman is telling the media. Take Green Bay.