NFL Week 9 Picks

Hey sports fans!
(Kind of always wanted to write that line, given I'd be much too embarrassed to say it)
I had an idea for a blog that keep me typing away regularly on here without having to think of topic I don't already cover for other sites, and it got me thinking about a betting column. Because what do people love more than sports? Making money from sports!

So I figured that I'd try my hand giving a few betting tips based on the sleep-depriving volume of sports I watch before the weekend, to give my 4am binges staring at NFL Gamepass, Twitter, Grantland, WhoScored some sort of depth and nobility(Because nothing quite says honor like groggily remonstrating at a laptop covered in Doritos and shame).

Anyway, I decided that eight weeks into a season before deciding to give my evenings purpose would be a good thing to do. Hope you like the column, and I hope my picks make you some money.

Odds courtesy of SkyBet.com

NFL Week 9: 

Atlanta Falcons (+7.5) at Carolina Panthers (-7.5). 

The 2-5 Falcons travel to the surprisingly 4-3 Panthers it what last year would've been an easy win for Atlanta and their high powered offense. How a year changes things, right? Key injuries to Julio Jones and Roddy White have rendered this offense pretty stale. Without Matt Ryan's two favorite wide receivers and the fact that shipped 14 points to THE ARIZONA CARDINALS last week(24th rated offense in the NFL) then I would say Cam Newton is probably going to enjoy himself. I would take the Panthers to cover the spread here.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Buffalo Bills

Jamaal Charles's is 'probable' for the game and that's probably a large part of the figures here, but how are the 8-0 Chiefs less than 5 point favorites over the 3-5 Bills? Even without their RB(who isn't ruled out, and will likely play) expect the KC pass rush to score enough on it's own to take this one. Just can't see the 18th ranked Bills offense being enough of an issue. Additionally, that defense may actually not even play Thad Lewis, who is listed as 'doubtful'. A 3rd or 4th choice QB vs the #1 D in America? Take the Chiefs and run before Vegas changes it.

New Orleans Saints (-6.0) at New York Jets

Despite actually looking close to average rather than the awful many predicted during the summer and beating the Patriots(which might say more about the injury ravaged Patriots than anything else) AND being in New York, I can't see Geno Smith beating this New Orleans defense. He'll throw a pick along the way, Drew Brees probably won't. The Saints also have the 4th best defense in the NFL, a better ranking than the Brees-Graham love in on offense. I'd pick the Saints to beat the spread in New York.

Tennessee Titans(-3.0) at St Louis Rams

Despite losing the last three, the Titans lost those games against the 49ers, Seahawks and the Chiefs. Nothing wrong with that, and now they travel to a St Louis team that seem to be stopping itself win football games right at the last second. The Titans defense is top 10, and there's no way I like Sam Bradford in any circumstance. Take the Titans here.

San Diego (-1.0) at the Washington Redskins

It's so close between these two, I'm essentially just picking a winner. Even if RG3's knee is feeling better week-by-week(and the Skins offense looked fluid making the Broncos do some late-game heroics to come out the victor last week) I don't like the defense against a Phillip Rivers who has remembered how to throw a ball. And the Charger's defense won't be as porous. San Diego gets my vote.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers(+14.5) at Seattle Seahawks

If this was in Tampa, I'd be really tempted to take the Bucs here. After Seattle squeaked past the very bad St Louis Rams I wasn't entirely sure I can really buy into that offense until I see Percy Harvin in it. But they're at home, and Seattle are notoriously ridiculous at home. Feels like one of those games that the 12th man gets a few TD's for the 'Hawks. Also think that maybe the 0-7 Bucs will be hoping that a blowout will see off unpopular coach Greg Schiano. Take the Hawks.

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns

I'm taking the Browns here, because I think the stingy Cleveland D will hold the profligate Ravens offense to a quiet game. Very quiet. The Ravens have the 21st best offense in the country and will travel to the Browns who have are unlucky to be 3-5, while the Ravens have been fortunate to have lost as many close ones as they have. I'd pick the Browns, despite how dirty I feel typing that.

Pittsburgh Steelers(+6.0) at New England Patriots

The Patriots have only won by more than a touch down twice in six wins, and that was against the irrecoverably bad Buccaneers in Week 3 and the Dolphins last week, who have the 19th ranked defense in the NFL. Just think they'll probably win because they're at home, but it'll be one of those dragging, 30% 3rd down conversion sort of games. The Steelers lost by three in the last two weeks, I expect something similar against Brady's 17th(!!!) ranked offense. I'd take the Steelers.

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Houston Texans

I don't know how the Colts(5-2), who beat Peyton Manning's Broncos are under 3 point favorites to beat the Houston Texans(2-5), who have the 3rd worst offense, the 6th worst defense and the second-worst points differential in the entire league. Not to mention the revolving door/pick-six-waiting-to-happen under center. Take Indy.

Bears (+10.5) at Green Bay Packers

The Bears have no Lance Briggs, Jay Cutler and D.J Williams. Charles Tillman is doubtful. That's two of your three starting linebackers, your quarterback and a cornerback. The Bears had the 4th worst defense WITH those guys in, and travel to Lambeu Field and Aaron Rodgers. Despite the 2nd best offense in the NFL for points, losing their passer to a groin injury will probably have a bigger impact than coach Marc Trestman is telling the media. Take Green Bay.