Arizona at Philadelphia (-3.0)
After Bruce Arian's Cardinals pulled off a shock 40-11 win over the Colts last week suddenly you look at the 7-4 Cards and think maybe they can do some damage. If they weren't unfortunate to be in the same division as the Seahawks and the 49ers then they wouldn't still give the impression they're probably going to be on the outside looking in come January. But, anything is possible and San Fran don't look as good as their own 7-4 record suggests.
The Eagles are 3 point favorites and on a three game winning streak but taking a look through their schedule suggests they're just taking advantage of bad defenses. Their last three wins came against Oakland, Washington and Green Bay who have the 21st, 23rd and 31st ranked defense in terms of points allowed. Arizona's defense is ranked 8th and coming off that Indy win will give the Cards a lot of 'no-one believed in us look what we can do' sort of confidence.
Result Prediction: Arizona to Win
Spread: Arizona to beat
Chicago at Minnesota(-1.0)
The Bears 32nd ranked run defense(the worst in the country, by the way) rolls into Minnesota to face the reigning MVP and best RB in the NFL, Adrian Peterson. Don't be at all surprised if AP rips off a 70 yard touchdown run on the first play. AP also gets more yards against the Bears than any other team in his career, and that was before Chicago had a run defense that would probably be embarrassed in College Football.
The Bears are the better side and McCown is doing a sterling job in Jay Cutler's stead but if that defense is giving up 5 yards a carry against terrible rushing attacks(Ray Rice having the best day of his season despite averaging under three yards a carry for the season) then I just don't feel good backing them at all. Take the Vikes here, and maybe consider a prop bet on AP to get 200 yards as well.
Result Prediction: Minnesota
Spread: Minnesota to cover
Jacksonville at Cleveland(-7.0)
When was the last time the Browns were 7 point favorites over anyone? Or anything? If the Browns were playing my high school team(who don't have an NFL team as I'm English and that's not what we do here, so they'd be playing my school rugby team who had to learn how to play the American Football in a short space of time) I'd still be like 'yeah the Browns are favorites, but 10 points feels a little steep. I really like that defense against Weeden/Campbell/Whoever'. That's kinda how I'd feel today if they weren't facing the Jags, a team so committed to being bad that Jacksonville's GM could give seminars on self abuse and suffering to haughty teenagers. 'It's like an art form man, it's being so bad for something that could be so good.' Well, after all this I hope it's worth it! I would expect the Browns to win but I don't think it's going to be by more than seven. I also don't think there's going to be anything good to watch in this game at all.
Result Prediction: Cleveland
Spread: Jacksonville to beat
Miami at NY Jets(-1.5)
This is a tough one between two sides that can't decide whether to be good or mediocre, and keep flitting between the two. They're both similar sides: blitzing defense, question marks hanging over a young quarterback and they both need this to have a shot at a playoff berth in the AFC. The Jets are favorites at home but I'd take Miami here against a side that has struggled to beat the offensively stunted Ravens and the Bills(self explanatory) in the last two weeks. Tannehill > Geno.
Result Prediction: Miami
Spread: Miami to beat
New England (-7.5) at Houston
The Texans are done. They're sinking, Schaub is getting booed, there's no real QB answer and so many NFL analysts are picking the Texans to take Johnny Manziel ridiculously early in the draft it's not even funny. Remember when we said this team would be competitive? What happened to that? Meanwhile, Tom Brady's Patriots will keep rolling on their way to another divisional title. The Texans will just be another(particularly ugly) speed bump.
Result: New England
Spread: New England to cover
Denver(-5.0) at Kansas
The battle of the invincibles has turned to a battle of two sides that have now suddenly lost their Superbowl sheen. Can Peyto get the Broncos to the promised land if Brady is waiting for him? If Phillip Rivers can do that to the Chiefs defense then who else can? Both teams will be looking to restore some pride after reputation damaging losses and I don't think Denver are going to win by more than 6, away from home against what is still as suffocating a defense Manning will play all year. This'll be a close one.
Result: Denver
Spread: KC to beat
Tampa at Carolina(-8.0)
The Bucs are on a three game winning streak?! How the hell did that happen? After looking like they would lose every game, their coach and the guarantee that anyone who said "I quite like the Bucs" this summer definitely won't be saying it ever again. But has that 3 game streak given at least a little bit of justification? If Josh Freeman wasn't a tire fire with arms then could this team have been a read threat? Maybe. But after beating the Lions in the most Lions-like game of all time(Detroit blowing it in a way that only they can), beating Atlanta (who are now even more committed to being terrible), the only real credible win is the OT victory over Miami. Carolina look great, and Mike Glennon is not going to have a fun day with the Panthers defensive line.
Result: Carolina
Spread: Carolina to cover
Cincinnati at San Diego(-1.5)
The Chargers are so difficult to predict. They look good in one week, they win the next. They look terrible, then they win in a big game where Rivers looks like an MVP candidate. It's similar with the Bengals. Cincy have a golden opportunity to win a division that no-one seems to want to win and be a top seed in a conference that has teams with losing records that still have a chance to be relevant. Like the Chargers, funnily enough. A win here, 8-4 will almost definitely put Cincy in the drivers seat but after losing twice in OT to the Dolphins and the Ravens can you be sure about it? I like what Vegas have done here. I'd take San Diego too.
Result: San Diego
Spread: San Diego to cover
Atlanta at Buffalo (-3.0)
The Falcons, away from home, who have given up on the season(lets take a moment for Tony Gonzalez's career) and gunning for Jadeveon Clowney in the draft against a Buffalo side who just don't know when to quit. That 23 point win over the Jets makes me thing this team maybe could break even before the end of the season. The Bills over .500 for the season? Who knew? Their next two games after this Atlanta clash are Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. 3-0? I wouldn't be surprised.
Result: Buffalo
Spread: Buffalo to cover
Tennessee at Indianapolis (-4.0)
Time to find out whether Colts owner Jim Irsay's Twitter rant after his teams loss to the Cards will have any effect in motivating the team to beat the Titans. Irsay once again raises questions about owners involvement in the game, let the football people do the work blah blah but bottom line, the guy pays the bills. What happened vs the Cardinals? How did you lose that badly against the Rams? They're all pertinent questions but the Colts will still win their division because they're the only team in it with a quarterback whose name doesn't follow with an immediate query. I expect that to ring true in the tie against the Titans.
Result: Indy
Spread: Indy
NY Giants(-1.0) at Washington
The Redskins fall from critical darling's of the 2012 to 3-8 in the 2013 season and behind a Giants team who started 0-6 has been quite astonishing. The loss against the Cowboys takes the Giants out of the playoff race but that Redskins defense isn't stopping a nosebleed this season, ranked 31st in points conceded, 29th in points differential and with RG3 completing under 60% of his passes with a TD-INT ratio of 14-11 it's hard to see Washington rescuing some pride here.
Result: NY
Spread: NY to cover
New Orleans at Seattle(-5.5)
The battle between the two most exciting teams in the NFC is set to get underway as we see Brees vs Wilson, Graham vs Seattle's suspended secondary and Percy Harvin against Rob Ryan's NO defense. Most football games come down to personal battles but I can see this being a shoot out that home advantage rescues it for Seattle. I think the Hawks will do it, but not by much.
Result: Seattle
Spread: New Orleans to beat
Odds courtesy of SkyBet.com
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